Marvel's Thunderbolts* budget & how much money it needs to make to succeed explained

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The summer film season is off to a great start with Thunderbolts*, but for Marvel to be successful, it must earn a substantial chunk of money globally. During the Infinity Saga, the MCU was consistent, but not anymore. Since Avengers: Endgame, it has had a number of successful films, such as Spider-Man: No Way Home and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3. But it also had a number of failures, like The Marvels and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania. Captain America: Brave New World didn’t achieve the same level of success as Deadpool & Wolverine, which made over $1 billion. Given that Marvel only released this and the Fantastic Four before Avengers: Doomsday, Thunderbolts* is expected to be a huge hit. The studio must create anticipation for the upcoming big crossover event. Thankfully, Thunderbolts* boasts a strong ensemble of characters, including some newcomers like Lewis Pullman’s Sentry and many returning from earlier films and television series. Marvel will need more for the movie to break even, but the primary roster of characters could be enough to get people to the seats.

Although no source has formally disclosed Thunderbolts‘s budget, Forbes claims that it wouldn’t be shocking if the movie had a production budget “in the $150 million to $200 million range.” Recently, blockbuster movies have become more expensive, making it more difficult for them to break even. Marvel has been making a lot of films at this price, or maybe more. If Thunderbolts falls within that range, its production costs would be comparable to or even cheaper than those of other MCU movies before marketing and promotion. Brave New World, for instance, cost about $180 million. Though still pricey, it is less costly than The Marvels, which cost $270 million to produce. Additionally, Ant-Man 3 was expensive, with an estimated budget of $388.4 million. Because there are no box office returns for many of its streaming shows, such as Secret Invasion and She-Hulk: Attorney At Law, Marvel’s extravagant expenditures have grown expensive for the company.

For a film to turn a profit, the production budget usually has to be doubled. In order to succeed, Thunderbolts* would need to generate between $300 and $400 million, if the budget estimate is correct. However, since some marketing and advertising figures aren’t often included in the overall budget, that figure probably has to be raised. For instance, depending on its stated budget, Brave New World was a middling success, earning $414 million worldwide. Thunderbolts* might be deemed a success if its budget is comparable to that of the first Marvel movie and it earns about the same amount. But it’s clear that Marvel wants to make more than that in order to improve the studio’s return on investment. If the movie doesn’t recoup its entire budget, it will largely be a box office disaster. With only $206 million made globally, The Marvels was a huge movie office failure for Marvel and much below their budget.

Thunderbolts*’s current box office forecasts are not encouraging. The Hollywood Reporter is predicting that the Marvel movie will open domestically in “the $63 million to $77 million range, with a target number of $70 million.” With an opening below Brave New World’s $88 million but above The Marvels’ $47 million, it would rank in the lowest rung of Marvel movies. The more important question is how the movie will unfold over the next several weeks and if favorable reviews and audience responses will boost its estimates. Due to conflicting responses, Brave New World and The Marvels had steep declines in their second weekends. On the other hand, Thunderbolts* is getting positive reviews; according to 79 reviews, it presently has a 91% critic score on Rotten Tomatoes. Strong crowd word-of-mouth might result in long-term success at the box office, possibly surpassing original estimates. Sinners, for instance, only had a 6% decline in its second weekend because of the positive reviews it received from both reviewers and viewers. Thunderbolts* may see an increase in box office receipts during its theatrical run if reviews remain positive.